Oct 2, 2019

Thaibev update 2019

It has been a couple of years since I last studied Thaibev, and boy, they had been busy.

These are the main ones and I probably missed out a lot of the smaller deals (Genki sushi etc).

2019: Starbucks TH, Emerald Brewery MM, Dongguan Liteng Foods CN
2017: Sabeco VN, KFC TH, Grand Royal Group MM, Spice of Asia TH, Chang mineral water TH
2016: MX cakes & bakery TH



The non-alcoholic beverages segment is STILL loss-making, but the turnaround seems nearer now. Its a segment that requires heavy spending on promotions, campaigns and advertisements while not really contributing much to the net profit. Spending is done because competitors are spending (price wars), take the RTD green tea for example.

They are also doing a good job with the Crystal bottled water but personally, why can't people just buy a water filter and reusable bottle? Our region is still pretty big on convenience (we as Singaporeans, can do only so much...) so business wise for bottled water it is still growth growth growth. But seriously, the only recycling is probably when people dump these in the bushes and then when the fire comes, it is recycled into the air and our lungs!

Anyway... there are several bumps in the road; Thai domestic consumption, sugar tax, excise tax hike (again), but there is one catalyst that could be worth waiting for: efficiency improvements at Sabeco.

It has also been about a year since the additional guys were appointed in to firm up control, but I think the market should give them some more time. For example, Sabeco could have locked into purchase contracts for malt and hops at unfavorable prices and termination may not be possible. Other areas like packaging and distribution channels are actually Thaibev's proven forte so improvements in these areas could come sooner.




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Thaibev update 2019

It has been a couple of years since I last studied Thaibev, and boy, they had been busy. These are the main ones and I probably missed out...